On Tuesday, the quarterfinals of the 2024/25 Champions League season will begin, and while defending champions Real Madrid are always the favorites until proven otherwise, they have been significantly outplayed by Barcelona in their own league and barely survived the Round of 16 against crosstown rivals Atletico Madrid.
Meanwhile, Aston Villa are still sticking around despite their struggles in the Premier League and have a big-ticket battle against Unai Emery’s former club PSG, who knocked league phase leaders Liverpool out of the competition.
Here are the full predictions for the quarterfinals across both legs.
Bayern Munich vs. Inter Milan
Bayern Munich head into the Champions League quarterfinals with a ton of major injuries to their back line. The most significant one is the torn ACL to superstar left back Alphonso Davies, and starting center back Dayot Upamecano will also be out with a serious knee injury.
On the Inter Milan side, Denzel Dumfries won’t be available for at least the first leg, giving Bayern at least somewhat of a reprieve from the Davies injury since Raphael Guerreiro, who is more winger than fullback, will have to cover Matteo Darmian instead of the more athletic and attacking Dumfries.
I could go either way with this one, and Bayern vs. Inter has to be considered the tightest of the four quarterfinal matchups with Real Madrid and Arsenal being a relatively close second.
But for me, the difference lies in Inter’s coaching. Simone Inzaghi is arguably the best coach in European football with the way he has transformed the Nerazzuri into not only perennial Serie A title favorites but also into a team that was agonizingly close to winning the Champions League just two years ago.
Arsenal vs. Real Madrid
As much as I’m down on Arsenal’s overall squad quality and don’t see many strengths for them beyond their defending, having Bukayo Saka back in the lineup is massive for the Gunners.
Not only is he the best player on the team and the one guy who can consistently play at an elite level and produce goals from nothing, but he will be going up against a very weak Real Madrid left back and left center back combination.
This tie will tell us just how good Saka is compared to the likes of Kylian Mbappe and Vinicius Junior and if he is truly also a perennial Ballon d’Or contender.
I think Real Madrid are closer to Arsenal in quality than they’d like to admit, and their weaknesses match up poorly with Arsenal. Real Madrid struggle defensively but are great offensively. Well, Arsenal have a great defense and struggle for scoring options besides Saka.
Real Madrid, moreover, struggle to control games in midfield after Toni Kroos’ retirement. Arsenal’s greatest strength lies in their control with Riccardo Calafiori, William Saliba, Mikel Merino, Declan Rice, Thomas Partey, and Martin Odegaard all excellent in possession.
It sounds crazy to say this, but it fits only because it’s Real Madrid. The fact that the second leg is at the Santiago Bernabeu means that Real Madrid will escape to the semifinals by the skin of their teeth in a tie that fans will be frustrated to see being closer than they would have liked.
Barcelona vs. Dortmund
Dortmund are starting to look good under Niko Kovac after the adjustment period, and they just put up four goals on the road against a pretty decent Freiburg team.
Maxi Beier’s recent uptick in form suggests a regular role for him, and while that is a reason for optimism, I just don’t buy Dortmund as a serious Champions League contender despite their status as finalists last season.
Dortmund are so poor in the midfield and defensively that the likes of Pedri and Lamine Yamal are going to run circles around them. BVB have a way of stepping up to their best in the Champions League, especially at home, so this tie should be more compelling on television than it is on paper.
That said, I don’t see how Dortmund can match up with Barca’s attacking quality, which is pretty close to historically great under Hansi Flick. Yamal and Raphinha are going to do serious damage on the wings against Dortmund’s horrible fullback sitaution.
PSG vs. Aston Villa
PSG established themselves as the new darkhorse favorites to win the Champions League, and if you take out any discussion of the quality of Ligue 1 and solely look at the numbers, they have been the best team in Europe this season and kind of proved that with how they outplayed runaway Premier League leaders Liverpool across two legs.
Aston Villa have shown signs of life lately, but they are still outside the bubble of European football in their own league. Unai Emery is so good at coaching teams in cups that, like Dortmund, I think Villa will be able to make this tie more interesting than just the talent matchup would suggest on paper.
But how can you pick against PSG? For all the negative things I’ve said about Luis Enrique, I have to give him 10 times that in credit for putting his vision together and turning PSG into a, pun fully intended, well-oiled machine that is more about the collective than the superstars.
But if you ask me, I’ll take 2024/25 Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Bradley Barcola, and especially Ousmane Dembele over 2021/22 Lionel Messi, Neymar, and Kylian Mbappe any day of the week – and doubly so if that day is a Tuesday or Wednesday.
Joe Soriano covers West Ham for Green Street Hammers and writes about Real Madrid for The Real Champs. He has extensive experience covering world football since 2014. Joe is an editor for The Trivela Effect, where he covers the biggest clubs in European football. He has watched professional sports regularly since 2002 and can be found playing the same sports he covers with his friends.