How many matches will Liverpool lose without Alisson Becker?

Liverpool returned to the fore as Premier League title contenders in the 2023/24 season, and while they ultimately fizzled out at the very end, the signs were there for an even stronger run at the title in 2024/25.

Already, Liverpool look like a more dangerous team with Arne Slot managing the side, as he’s turned Ryan Gravenberch into one of the best performing midfielders in the world while getting Luis Diaz back to his status as an elite left winger.

Liverpool have won every single game but one this season, which was a Sept. 14 defeat to Nottingham Forest, one of the best defenses in the Premier League, by 1-0.

Over the next several weeks, the Reds’ stock as title contenders will truly be put to the test with a gauntlet of matches, and they will also face some tough competition in the Champions League.

Furthermore, Liverpool will have to win these difficult matchups without one of their two most important players, as world-class goalkeeper Alisson Becker, the best in the league until proven otherwise, is expected to miss six weeks with a hamstring injury he suffered this past weekend vs. Crystal Palace.

That puts the Brazilian shot-stopper’s return date to November after the international fixtures. Alisson is scheduled to miss matches against Chelsea, Arsenal, Brighton, and Aston Villa in the Premier League and then German giants Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig in the Champions League. Additionally, Alisson will miss a fixture against Brighton in the League Cup.

All seven of those matches are difficult and ones Liverpool could conceivably lose even with the services of one of world football’s five best goalkeepers. Each of those clubs is either currently Champions League caliber or capable of qualifying for next season’s Champions League – or Europe, at the very least.

Liverpool should be able to beat Chelsea, Aston Villa, and Brighton. However, the games against the Champions League clubs and fellow title contenders Arsenal will be more difficult without Alisson, especially with the way Bundesliga star strikers Lois Openda, Benjamin Sesko, and Victor Boniface are all playing.

If I had to call it straight-up, I’d have Liverpool beating Chelsea 3-2, drawing Arsenal 2-2, taking down Aston Villa 2-1, drawing Brighton 3-3 in the league but winning 5-4 in the League Cup, and then beating Leipzig 2-1 but losing to Leverkusen 3-2.

So that’s four wins, two draws, and one loss in seven games without Alisson and with 25-year-old backup Coaimhin Kelleher in goal instead. Kelleher has a career 73.9 save percentage, so while there is no replacing Alisson, part of the reason for my confidence is that the raw talent in the Liverpool goal will do just enough to tide the Reds over until late November.