Tottenham, Dominic Solanke, and conflating ambition with imprudence

Tottenham were one of the most active teams in the Premier League in both the last summer and winter transfer windows, bringing in the likes of Guglielmo Vicario and Micky van de Ven to transform their defense while adding James Maddison and Timo Werner as big names to boost the attack.

In their first season under Ange Postecoglou, Spurs finished fifth in the Premier League, but to get to that next level and return to the Champions League, Tottenham understood that they would need to make a splash by signing one true star to boost their attack.

Their choice appears to be Dominic Solanke of Bournemouth, as Tottenham have agreed to sign the player for a whopping 65 million pounds, replacing Harry Kane’s presence in the box two years later.

Solanke emerged on the Tottenham transfer radar just a matter of weeks ago, so Spurs quickly accelerated to make the deal happen after previously showing only mild interest in the main striker options on the market like Lille’s Jonathan David.

Let’s take a closer look at the Solanke transfer. Why Tottenham made it, how Solanke can help Spurs, and why there are some serious problems with the club making this expensive signing.

Why Tottenham wanted Solanke

It’s important to begin with the impetus for the move, because Tottenham decided to sign Dominic Solanke for a reason. They probably looked at the make-up of their squad and saw how badly they needed a man in the middle to serve as an anchoring point and a consistent source of goals.

Tottenham only had two players capable of playing the 9 last season. One of those options is world-class in Son Heung-min, but he’s been a career winger before being forced inside in the aftermath of the Harry Kane to Bayern Munich transfer.

The second option is Timo Werner, who returned for another loan from RB Leipzig after honestly failing to make much of an impact in his initial six-month spell in North London.

If Son isn’t a true striker, then Werner is an even bigger question mark at the position. He has always been at his best attacking from wide positions, because even as a striker at Leipzig before his move to Chelsea in 2020, the German international was at his best in a free-flowing Bundesliga attack that enabled him to split wide or get into space in transition opportunities. Any true striker role was a flop for Werner, whether at Chelsea or for the German national team.

You could argue that Richarlison is a third striker option for Tottenham, but Spurs have been actively trying to sell the Brazilian veteran to the Saudi Pro League while he shares similar concerns with the others. Furthermore, he makes more sense as a backup option to a more physical presence up top.

At 6’2″, Solanke is that physical presence, and he is a much stronger player than Richarlison, who is a lankier 6’0″ than Solanke, who is more built than several Premier League center backs.

What Solanke brings

Solanke was once one of the most touted prospects in English football while at Liverpool, and based on his breakout season for Bournemouth in 2023/24, it seems like the 26-year-old is a late bloomer.

He burst out with a career high 19 goals in the Premier League last season, one year after only scoring 6 times in the English top flight. Before that, though, Solanke did have 29 goals in the Championship for Bournemouth in 2021/22, successfully bringing the Cherries back up to the Premiership.

Solanke’s flirtation with 20 goals in 2023/24 are a sign that he may be putting it all together now as a scorer, but, actually, the chief benefit of signing Solanke will be his all-around play.

Even in that season with just 6 goals for the Cherries, Solanke showed up well as a creator with 7 assists on a mid-table team. He had half that number of assists in 2023/24, but he actually averaged more key passes per game (1 vs. 0.6). Note that in each of the last four seasons in both the Premiership and Championship, Solanke has averaged at least 1 dribble completed and at least 1 foul drawn per game,

Underrated in skill, technical ability, and creativity, Solanke isn’t just a burly striker who can win in the air and potentially score 20 Premier League goals; he’s also a well-rounded striker who can make the players around him significantly better. And you have to figure his supporting cast at Tottenham will be substantially better than the one at Bournemouth he has carried for multiple seasons.

Solanke and Son

For years, Tottenham boasted one of the best attacking partnerships in Harry Kane and Son-Heung min, who, combined, averaged 1.61 goals and assists per 90 minutes in the Premier League for Spurs.

Those are staggering numbers, and Son and Kane had the definition of a mutually beneficial partnership, their skill-sets meshing beautifully. Son was the pacy, versatile winger who could finish like a striker and kill in transition.

Meanwhile, Kane thrived on technical proficiency, creativity, and a range of finishing and playmaking that were the envy of every striker in world football not named Karim Benzema.

Nobody is ever replacing what Kane brought to Tottenham, but Spurs realized that they wanted to sign a striker who could bring all-around play with a box presence, capable of scoring goals while helping Son get his, too.

Out of all the options on the transfer market, Tottenham likely viewed Solanke as the one best suited to fulfill the skill set they wanted at the 9 in terms of combining physicality, goal-scoring potential, and all-around quality.

Solanke can enable Son to kick back to the left wing, which is his best position, and set the South Korean up with clear goal-scoring opportunities, as well as free up space or even provide lay-offs into shooting opportunities around the edge of the box when cutting inside onto his right foot.

A ludicrous price tag

The problem is Tottenham are paying an exorbitant amount of money for Solanke. At 26, Solanke is going to sign a six-year contract, so, essentially, he will have no resale value on the 65 million pound investment.

That’s because Solanke will be 31 by the time he has one year left on his contract. Tottenham could try to sell him at 30 and cash-in, but only the Saudi Pro League would be interested in spending anywhere near even half of the initial fee.

Even then, it’s unclear how interested the Saudi Pro League would be in a striker who isn’t a big name, global superstar akin to Karim Benzema to Roberto Firmino – examples of two strikers their clubs spent big on in summer 2023. The Saudi investment could look very different by the time 2028 rolls around.

Therefore, it’s more likely Solanke ends up in Tottenham until he is 32, resisting moves to mid-table clubs that would not be able to cover his salary, and leaves for free. And it’s anyone’s guess if Solanke will leave as a player who exceeded expectations or was a flop.

Solanke is a high-risk financial investment both in terms of the transfer package and contract, while he is a medium-reward signing. He offers Tottenham no long-term financial upside, so they are spending the 65 million pound fee in the hopes that he will be worth it on the strength of his play alone.

However, Solanke’s 65 million pound transfer fee and overall play cannot be evaluated in a vacuum. We have to be a bit harsher than that, because Tottenham could have signed any other striker.

Instead, Tottenham chose to sign a player who, at 26, never had a great Premier League season as a goal-scorer until 2023/24. Chelsea were criticized for spending 50 million euros on Nicolas Jackson based on a half-season of great play for Villarreal, but Jackson was also just 20 at the time of his signing.

The Solanke transfer will be compared to similar striker deals, both in the previous summer window when Kane could have been replaced, the current window in which Solanke was signed, and future windows when Spurs could have waited with Son and Richarlison as center forward options before pursuing someone else.

Recruiting on convenience

Tottenham chose to sign a notable, standout physical profile in the Premier League to a big-money deal with no long-term financial upside/resale value, and they probably took this plunge out of convenience rather than based on smart recruitment.

That’s been an issue with Tottenham, because while they have been brilliant at identifying top-class Serie A talent and have largely recruited well, they have a tendency to bias towards well-known attacking players with Premier League ties.

James Maddison had a great start to the 2023/24 season but has faded with similar injury concerns to those at Leicester City. Timo Werner is back for another loan at Tottenham, but nobody is taking him seriously as a long-term solution. Richarlison’s Spurs future seems to be in flux and only existent because of his refusal to leave.

Solanke comes to Tottenham at a greater cost than any of these three players and with less of a track record of success. Now, it can be argued that because of his all-around quality and his 19 goals at a mid-table side like Bournemouth, he has more upside than the average 26-year-old, but he wouldn’t be the first Premier League striker to flop at that age after scoring 15+ as the clear focal point on an average team.

In some ways, it is more difficult to score a high volume of goals with a lukewarm supporting cast, but, in other ways, it is easier to stand out on an average team because so much of the play will run through you.

There is a segment of fans of any club who are averse to any criticism watering down the optimism of a deal, and Tottenham are in a particularly delicate position because so many of their issues are rooted in Daniel Levy’s lack of proactivity, investment, or ambition on the transfer market.

But while Spurs can be lauded for backing Ange Postecoglou for a 65 million pound signing, it reeks of the kind of shoddy, Ed Woodward-esque recruitment at Manchester United in the second half of the 2010s.

Basically, Tottenham are overpaying for a veteran attacker who is well-known in the Premier League, not really respected elsewhere, and had limited suitors. Other, quite frankly better, teams in need of a striker in the Premier League did not go after Solanke.

Tottenham did, and they paid a bloated, intraleague price anyway, taking a risk on a player who will help the team but is very unlikely to meet that price tag. Becaus even in his best season in 2023/24, Solanke did not play like a 65 million pound striker.