Did Barcelona make a mistake by signing Ilkay Gundogan? Will Brighton’s transfer gamble be worth the reward? And are Juventus getting one over on AC Milan this summer?
Here is the latest analysis behind some of world football’s hottest transfer news stories.
Juventus stealing Pierre Kalulu from AC Milan
Juventus had a lot of problems last season, but the defense clearly wasn’t one of them. So much so that Gleison Bremer and Danilo were two of the best center backs in Serie A, while Federico Gatti joined Bremer with significant interest from around the Premier League.
Still, Juve wanted to land a young center back to potentially start over Gatti for new manager Thiago Motta and then take the reigns as a star in defense from Danilo, who is heading closer to the end at age 33.
Although Juve missed out on current Arsenal star Riccardo Calafiori, it looks like the Bianconeri are going to add one of the most talented young defenders in Serie A – albeit someone with far less buzz.
Fabrizio Romano reports that Juventus acquired Pierre Kalulu from AC Milan on loan for 3-4 million euros with a buy option of 14 million euros plus add-ons. So if Kalulu plays well enough to earn a permanent stay in Turin, he will only set the Bianconeri back 20 million euros.
That’s a pretty good deal, considering a starting-caliber 24-year-old defender with the ability to play center or right back would normally cost double that amount. And it is especially interesting to see that Milan, in need of defensive help, are so willing to sell a talented defender.
While it is true that Kalulu hasn’t quite reached expectations on his billing as one of Serie A’s top defensive prospects, the young Frenchman hasn’t exactly been bad in a Milan kit despite his struggles last season.
Kalulu, for example, averaged more than three combined tackles and interceptions per game in the 2021/22 season when Milan won the Scudetto, and you wonder if under Thiago Motta, who helped turn Calafiori and Jhon Lucumi into beasts for Bologna, Kalulu will be able to fulfill his top-class potential.
It isn’t often you see a transfer between Serie A heavyweights end up being a low-risk bargain, but Juventus have the ability to sign Kalulu for cheap with the counterbalance being that they can let him go back to Milan if he does not perform to Motta’s expectations.
Honestly, that’s the ideal way to get a deal done, and you have to give props to Juventus for signing a talented player from within Serie A at a top club with a past pedigree of success on no-risk terms instead of their usual ploy of either overpaying for a Serie A star or signing a useless veteran free agent to bloated wages.
Meanwhile, you have to seriously wonder why Milan, in need of center back depth and a starting right back, are so willing to toss the talented Kalulu to a rival when their new manager (Paulo Fonseca) hasn’t even really worked with the 24-year-old yet.
Brighton gambling on Georginio Rutter
While Juventus are taking a low-risk approach and signing Pierre Kalulu, Brighton are going all-in on their biggest transfer gamble of what has been a surprisingly ambitious summer transfer window for the Seagulls.
It’s funny thinking that Brighton lost Roberto De Zerbi over concerns that they were not being ambitious enough following a poor summer 2023 transfer window to being arguably the biggest winners of the window in the entire Premier League.
Brighton made the mistake of not supporting RDZ adequately after he made history by taking them to Europe, so they are giving their new talented up-and-coming manager, former St. Pauli man Fabian Hurzeler, every chance to succeed.
The latest big signing headed to Brighton is another former Bundesliga talent in Georginio Rutter, who is set to head to the Seagulls from Leeds United for a whopping 40 million pounds.
Out of all the major signings Brighton have made recently to push for European football, including the additions of Feyenoord stars Yankuba Minteh and Mats Wieffer this summer, Rutter is actually the one who will break the Seagulls’ all-time transfer record.
Rutter is truly a talent worthy of Brighton, just as Wiffer, Minteh, and Mainz playmaking phenom Brajan Gruda are. So Rutter is, in effect, a very expensive cherry on top of what was already a phenomenal injection of talent to a Brighton side that would have otherwise been reeling from club legend Pascal Gross’s exit back to the German top flight.
A standout of the German top flight himself, Rutter burst onto the scene in the 2021/22 season with 8 goals despite only starting 13 games for Hoffenheim. Rutter showed clinical finishing beyond his years and a threat in transition that made him one of the hottest prospects in the Bundesliga.
But instead of staying and developing with Hoffenheim as former Liverpool icon Roberto Firmino once did, Rutter bolted for the Premier League pastures, signing with a struggling Leeds side.
He ended up in the Championship, but his strong work with 7 goals, 15 assists, and 5.3 combined dribbles completed and fouls drawn in the second division broughth im up to a big top-flight opportunity with Brighton.
Rutter will be expected to start and make an impact immediately, putting instant pressure on a 22-year-old attacker who has yet to score 10 goals or record 5 assists in a single top-flight season.
But Brighton usually get their transfers right. So if Brighton of all clubs, are willing to empty their pocketbooks on a player – especially after already investing significantly in three top talents – then they must see something exceptional in Rutter.
As risky as it is for a usual mid-table side like Brighton to spend 40 million pounds on a single player without a true standout season at the top level, there’s something refreshing about the Seagulls taking the plunge on Rutter in this way. By going big, they have a shot at repeating their 2022/23 trick under De Zerbi and going back to Europe.
Barcelona could move on from Ilkay Gundogan
Barcelona have a tendency to look for free solutions on the transfer market in order to bring in veteran stabilizers to their young, academy-driven squad, as they need to circumvent their inability to keep up with the elite clubs in spending after years of financial mismanagement.
But in a way, spending so much money on the wages of veteran players who offer no long-term upside to the club is continuing to hamstring their financial power and overall squad-building capacity.
Ilkay Gundogan joined Barcelona in the summer 2023 transfer window as the most hyped of a field of veteran free agents that included a sea of disastrous signings like Marcos Alonso, Oriol Romeu, and Inigo Martinez.
Coming off a Premier League and Champions League-winning season that solidified his legacy as one of the best midfielders of his time, Gundgan’s value may have been a little too high, with Barcelona failing to see the limits to the positives of signing Gundogan.
On the one hand, Gundogan had a great individual season for Barcelona in 2023/24 with 5 goals, 9 assists, and 2.7 key passes per game as one of the top playmakers in Spanish football.
But on the other hand, Barcelona were dominated by Real Madrid in the title race, coming closer to upstarts Girona than a star-studded club boasting Ballon d’Or candidates Jude Bellingham and Vinicius Junior.
Gundogan was hailed as a serial winner and leader, with these intangible buzzwords blown out of proportion in comparison to the reality that Gundogan is a 33-year-old center midfielder who offers nothing defensively and very little on the ball beyond playmaking in the final third.
Now, Gundogan is a cerebral assassin who excels with his vision and ability to pick out the right pass, but Barcelona have young attacking midfielders with similar qualities. Even if they are not as refined as Gundogan, they are either better at winning the ball or more dynamic on it.
Thus, when looking at the overall scope of Gundogan’s 14 million euro salary charge, lack of long-term importance at 33, and the addition of the expensive but more versatile Dani Olmo, seeing the rumors of Barca tossing around the idea of letting Gundogan go for very, very little becomes less surprising.
As good as Gundogan has been throughout his career and as impressive as his numbers were last season, Barcelona need to put together an actual, long-term project to beat Real Madrid year after year. Gundogan isn’t a part of that, especially after the bold decision to sign Olmo from RB Leipzig.
Looking back, Gundogan was yet another case of Barcelona signing a good player at the wrong time without much thought of a long-term plan, and, unfortunately, many will point out that the man who is replacing him, Olmo, seems to be no different in the grand scheme of things. They still don’t learn.
The managing editor of The Trivela Effect, Kevin has 15 years of experience in digital media. He covered Real Madrid from 2019-2022 for The Real Champs as a site manager. You can contact him at the site’s official Twitter handle @TrivelaEffect or via the site’s official email thetrivelaeffect@gmail.com.