Rumors have been quietly rumbling all throughout the MLS off-season that league executives were considering changing the MLS playoffs’ structure.
First, there were reports that the league was looking to capitalize on the World Cup’s popularity and introduce a postseason tournament with a group stage and knockout competition to decide the league’s winner.
Then, there were reports of a best-of-three series to replace the win-or-go-home one-game playoff format MLS fans have grown to love over the last four years.
Now, reports have emerged that MLS is closing in on changing its playoff format to the best-of-three format originally discussed along with the addition of a play-in game for the 8th and 9th best team in each conference.
The result of these changes would lead to more teams making the playoffs and potentially twice as many playoff games than what would normally be played under the league’s current single-elimination playoff format.
This news comes in the same week that Liga MX executives in Mexico have voted to do away with the “repechaje,” which was essentially a wild card round between the 5-12th best teams in the league prior to the real playoffs starting. Doing away with the repechaje means now only the top 8 teams in the league make the playoffs, instead of the top 12.
The league has until February 25th to make its decision over whether to change its playoff structure. We think MLS should listen to its fans, learn from the repechaje’s failure in Liga MX, and not change its playoffs.
Why the league wants to change the MLS playoff structure
Before we get into why it’s a bad idea, let’s discuss why MLS wants to change its playoffs in the first place.
As many people have joked, it’s very “MLS” to change from a wildly popular playoff structure to a complicated, over-bloated one that no one asked for. While the league does like to overcomplicate things for seemingly no reason (take a look at MLS’s roster rules if you don’t believe us), there are very real, concrete reasons for the league to shake up their playoff system.
The most important reason is money. MLS is trying to capitalize on their new streaming deal with Apple TV by playing more playoff games per season. In MLS’s mind, the playoffs are exciting, people turn to MLS when there are important playoff games on, so why not make the playoffs bigger to get some new fans?
This same logic applies to the new Leagues Cup tournament with Liga MX. Knockout tournaments are exciting and Liga MX is very popular in the US, so let’s do a knockout tournament against Liga MX teams.
Both the Leagues Cup and new playoff proposals come from MLS’s desire to produce a compelling product greater than its regular season, which has often struggled to keep fans interested. As long as MLS struggles to maintain fan interest throughout its regular season, expanding the MLS playoffs will remain an attractive option for the league.
Now let’s get into why we think expanding the playoffs is a bad idea.
MLS regular season games will feel less important
Regular season games not mattering is a problem that affects all American sports leagues, but it’s an especially big problem with MLS’s regular season.
Unlike in the NFL and NBA, there’s no reward for being a bad team. MLS clubs won’t have the chance to be first in line to draft the next Messi just because they finished last in the league the previous season.
MLS not having promotion and relegation is another thing counting against the attractiveness of the league’s regular season offerings. While people can argue about whether pro/rel would work in the US (and believe us, they have), there’s no denying that relegation makes late-season games between bad teams more interesting than in leagues without relegation.
MLS’s current playoff structure doesn’t do much to make lower-table games more interesting, but it is good for making mid-table clashes interesting. Because the playoffs are a single elimination tournament, having home-field advantage can be a game changer, so it was worth watching to see if your club could secure a home-field playoff game.
For teams “on the bubble” the chance of getting into the playoffs and potentially being this year’s Cinderella story is enough to keep many fans interested all the way up to decision day. Making the MLS Cup Playoffs more predictable makes the tournament less special, which will surely be reflected in the quality of regular season play.
Another thing that devalues the MLS regular season is just how many teams will make it to the playoffs under the new system. With so many teams making it to the playoffs, making it to the playoffs will be less of an achievement. To us, we don’t understand why the league would want to devalue their marquee tournament by changing to this new system.
Single elimination playoffs give MLS the jeopardy it’s sorely missing
If we could boil the problem with MLS’s regular season down to just one thing, it would be that the regular season lacks jeopardy. Without pro/rel, there’s inherently less jeopardy watching an MLS season than any other league in the world.
MLS’s single elimination playoffs added some jeopardy, which is why it proved to be so popular with fans. In a win-or-go-home game, anything can happen. Over the course of one game, there could be dozens of different storylines that develop and change throughout the game.
Going to a best-of-three format largely gets rid of all the best things of a single elimination tournament. Instead, the playoffs become predictable and tedious with teams playing for draws as opposed to going all out in a win-or-go-home situation. Going to Apple TV should be an exciting time for MLS. Switching to a less exciting system would be a massive mistake for the league.
Liga MX already tried an expanded playoff structure, and it failed
As described in the introduction, Liga MX recently shrank their playoffs by getting rid of the repechaje. The league’s reason for doing so was summarized by Liga MX president Mikel Arriola who explained the repechaje was a mistake and that its existence was for purely commercial reasons.
If this sounds familiar, it should. To us, commercial reasons are the only reasons MLS would consider expanding their playoffs. The similarities don’t stop there.
With the repechaje system in Liga MX, 66% of the league’s teams made the playoffs. Without the repechaje, just 44% of the league will make the playoffs.
Under MLS’s current system, 48% of the league would made the playoffs this year. The new proposed system would see 62% of the league make the playoffs.
In Liga MX, allowing ⅔ of the league to make the playoffs led to disinterested fans, a bloated playoff structure, and ultimately a U-turn from league executives. MLS should learn from Liga MX’s experience and not change their playoff structure.
Fans don’t want the MLS playoffs to change
We saved the most important reason to not change the MLS playoff structure for last.
MLS fans don’t want this new system. In fact, many don’t just not like the proposed new system, they hate it. MLS reporter Pablo Maurer explained the situation succinctly on the Athletic Soccer Show podcast when playoff expansion was first discussed by saying, “I have never seen an idea so universally loathed by MLS fans.”
That sentiment continues to persist now that we have more details about the league’s new playoff proposal. Hopefully, the league is paying attention and trashes their plans to change such a beloved system.
