The Champions League Round of 16 will begin on Tuesday this week, and it feels like there are only a handful of teams of the 16 with a great chance at winning it all this year.
That being said, there is also no clear favorite. One of last year’s finalists, Inter Milan, were already knocked out, while Real Madrid, Liverpool, and PSG are all in bad periods.
Here is a ranking of the top eight teams (the proverbial top half) of the 16 heading into the Champions League Round of 16 action this week.
8. Chelsea
I don’t think anybody seriously buys Chelsea as top contenders, as they recently lost to rivals Arsenal in the Premier League and even struggled with Wrexham in the FA Cup this weekend.
But you know what? When Joao Pedro and Cole Palmer are healthy and playing together, this team looks dangerous. The Champions League is a different beast to the league, and by beating PSG in the Club World Cup Final, the Blues already showed they are dangerous against any team.
7. Liverpool
Liverpool have been huge disappointments, looking outside the eight ball in Champions League contention in their own league, as Mohamed Salah has sharply declined while some of the new signings have not worked out.
But others have. Florian Wirtz and Hugo Ekitike are as brilliant as Salah and Cody Gakpo are disappointing, and if some of the midfielders like Ryan Gravenberch can play to their real level, maybe the Reds can make another deep Champions League run.
6. Real Madrid
On paper, Real Madrid should be one of the top three contenders as they are every year, and they showed great heart in beating a dangerous Benfica. But there is so much disunity and ego in this team, and their recent results in La Liga have been mighty disappointing with Alvaro Arbeloa feeling the heat.
Kylian Mbappe and Jude Bellingham missing the first leg against Manchester City is catastrophic, and the injuries to the superstars really remind you how a lot of the role players like Franco Mastantuono have been huge flops this season.
5. PSG
PSG barely survived Monaco and then lost to them in Ligue 1 this weekend. They look like a shell of themselves from last season, and just watching players like William Pacho drop off in 2025/26 is a reminder of how tough it is to stay on top year after year.
4. Barcelona
Lamine Yamal is 100 percent healthy with the full keys to the show, and he has been untouchable in recent weeks, reminding those that when the goals and assists are there and the team is playing for him, the Spanish international is not only as dynamic but also as productive as any player in the world.
Defense is the huge question mark under Hansi Flick, and Ferran Torres has been an albatross wasting a lot of great Yamal chances. But man, Barca were as close as it gets last year to the Champions League Final, and they are, on paper, a little bit better this year with Fermin Lopez’s quiet breakout.
3. Manchester City
Manchester City loaded up again this winter transfer window with Marc Guehi and Antoine Semenyo, two of Europe’s best players. Omar Marmoush’s masterful performance against Newcastle United this weekend was a reminder that Erling Haaland is not the only superstar forward for Man City either.
This team is stacked, and they are basically neck and neck with Arsenal in the Premier League. Any of these teams in the top three could seriously win it all this year.
2. Arsenal
How can you deny Arsenal? This defense is by far the best in the world, and even their backups would make the starting defenses for clubs like Real Madrid, Barcelona, Liverpool, and Chelsea look middling.
The attacking firepower is an issue, as players like Martin Odegaard, Gabriel Martinelli, Viktor Gyokeres, and Eberechi Eze have not been at their very best this season. But I’d take the unity these guys have over disjointed attacks with bigger names like PSG’s and Real’s.
1. Bayern Munich
But Bayern Munich occupy the top spot. Yes, they have depth questions in midfield and defense, but their attacking quintet of Harry Kane, Michael Olise, Luis Diaz, Lennart Karl, and Jamal Musiala is the best in the world. By far. Heck, throw in veteran Serge Gnabry and then Chelsea’s Nicolas Jackson for good measure.
Joe Soriano is the editor of The Trivela Effect and a FanSided Hall of Famer who has covered world football since 2010. He’s led top digital communities like The Real Champs (Real Madrid) and has run sites covering Tottenham, Liverpool, Juventus, and Schalke. He also helped manage NFL Spin Zone and Daily DDT, covering the NFL and pro wrestling.