After blowout losses for Chelsea and Manchester City, the Champions League field is starting to narrow even before the second leg of the 2025/26 Round of 16 begins. Here are the top five contenders now, ranked in order, after an eventful first leg of the real beginning of the knockout stages.
5. Barcelona
Barcelona are the leaders of La Liga and a juggernaut with their midfield talent and Lamine Yamal, but they were quite powerless against Newcastle and lucky to have drawn the game, much like Arsenal were.
Newcastle outplayed Barca, and with how shaky the Blaugrana look at times defensively, it is hard to give them the nod over other teams that are either more solid defensively or, in Real Madrid’s case, simply better at elevating their games in the Champions League spotlight.
4. Arsenal
Arsenal were lucky to have drawn Bayer Leverkusen, as that Noni Madueke penalty was an outrageous dive – the sort that should, along with Alessandro Bastoni’s, be retroactively punished in the future.
The Gunners are a strong team with a great defense and midfield, but some of their stars in the midfield are starting to look leggy. And attacking players like Bukayo Saka really are not earning their reputations these days, which is ultimately costly at the highest level of the Champions League.
3. Real Madrid
Real Madrid are monsters of this competition, and when these highly talented and ambitious players lock in and care about putting their best foot forward, they are capable of anything.
We are starting to see the very best of Fede Valverde, Aurelien Tchouameni, and even Antonio Rudiger again. Yes, the defense has questions. But even without Jude Bellingham and Kylian Mbappe, Real made Manchester City, a Premier League title contender, look like a second rate squad.
2. PSG
PSG had serious question marks about them coming into the Round of 16 with middling performances in the league and troubles with Monaco both in Ligue 1 and the Champions League, but the reigning champions exacted some serious revenge on Chelsea in the first leg, reminding the whole world who they are.
When Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and the rest of the PSG attack is dealing, they are just as electrifying as Bayern’s or Barcelona’s unit, maybe even moreso. Sure, Chelsea were terrible and prone to errors, but that was also because the Parisians made it that way.
1. Bayern Munich
Even without Harry Kane, Bayern Munich ran roughshod over Atalanta, and while nobody ever thought La Dea would have a chance against the Bavarians, a 6-1 win in Bergamo is pretty insane.
It really shows you how brilliant the other players are despite all the attention that deservedly goes to Kane, the Ballon d’Or favorite. Because if this were any of the previous seasons in which it wasn’t a Cristiano Ronaldo vs. Lionel Messi debate, Michael Olise would have won the Ballon d’Or for what he’s doing right now.
Joe Soriano is the editor of The Trivela Effect and a FanSided Hall of Famer who has covered world football since 2010. He’s led top digital communities like The Real Champs (Real Madrid) and has run sites covering Tottenham, Liverpool, Juventus, and Schalke. He also helped manage NFL Spin Zone and Daily DDT, covering the NFL and pro wrestling.