The MLS playoffs are officially underway. New York Red Bulls and Sporting Kansas City got things started on Wednesday by defeating Charlotte FC and San Jose Earthquakes in the Wild Card Round.
Now that those matches are done and over with, the final MLS playoffs bracket are set. It’s time to dive into our MLS playoffs predictions. We take a look at the Round One matchups, key players, and storylines you should be paying attention to all throughout the 2023 MLS Cup Playoffs.
MLS playoffs format explained
Before we get into our MLS playoffs predictions and previews, we need to go over the new MLS Cup Playoffs format. Prior to this season, the MLS Cup champion was determined by a single-elimination knockout tournament with the higher-seeded team having home field advantage in a one-off game.
This season, MLS has chosen to adopt a best-of-three format for the first round. The first match of each series will be played at the higher seed’s stadium, with the second match hosted by the lower seed. If necessary, the third game will go back to the higher seed’s home turf. Every match will be decided by a penalty shootout, meaning no aggregate scoring. The first team to get two wins advances. It’s that simple.
Things get even simpler following the first round. The next three rounds—the conference semifinals, conference final, and MLS Cup—will be single-elimination matches hosted by the higher-seeded team.
Who’s in the MLS playoffs and who’s not
For most new MLS fans, the 2023 MLS Cup Playoffs are more about who just missed out than they are about the teams who qualified. If you haven’t heard by now, Lionel Messi is in MLS. Unfortunately for the seven-time Ballon d’Or Winner and the millions of new Inter Miami fans who worship him, Messi will not be playing in the MLS playoffs.
Messi and Inter Miami finished 14th in the Eastern Conference, which is just one spot above last place. This means they are one of the six teams from the East who will be watching the MLS playoffs from home. Besides Miami, there aren’t any notable teams we’re surprised missed the playoffs.
The top 9 teams from each conference qualify for the MLS Cup Playoffs. This means over 60% of the league qualifies for the MLS playoffs. If your team missed out, it means they had a very, very bad season.
Now that we’ve discussed how the MLS playoffs work and who’s in them, let’s get to our MLS playoffs predictions for Round One and beyond.
Eastern Conference
1. FC Cincinnati vs. 8. New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls squeaked into the MLS playoffs via a 94th-minute penalty kick on Decision Day against Nashville. The Red Bulls then went on to thrash Charlotte FC 5-2 in the Wild Card Round, so they should be coming into this series on a high. Even if that is the case, FC Cincinnati should still advance.
FC Cincinnati were by far the best team in MLS this season. Not only did FCC finish the season with the most points in MLS, they did it by a wide margin. Orlando City finished second on 63 points, six points behind FC Cincinnati’s 69. The Red Bulls’ best chance in this series is to make things ugly. That’s a big ask across a three-game series though. We think Cincy’s Luciano Acosta, Brandon Vazquez, and Dom Badji will simply be too much for NYRB to handle.
Player to Watch: Luciano Acosta. The 29-year-old Argentine is a shoo-in to win MLS MVP. If FC Cincinnati do well in the playoffs, it will be because of Acosta.
Key Storyline: How do Cincy cope with being big favorites? Two years ago, FCC had just finished bottom of the MLS standings for the third consecutive season. Now, they are MLS Cup favorites. We’ll be watching to see how they cope with these new, high expectations.
Prediction: FC Cincinnati advance in two games.
4. Philadelphia Union vs. 5. New England Revolution
Jim Curtin’s Philadelphia Union have proven to be one of MLS’s most solid teams over the past three seasons. Their defense-first, pressing systems can cause problems for any team in the league. To their credit, New England has also been impressive over the past three seasons, but they have never put it together in the playoffs during that period.
We expect NE Revs to flop again this time around. Ignoring all the controversy off the pitch for both teams, the Union are just a better and deeper team at nearly every position. Unless the Revs’ Carlos Gil has a Messi-like series, Philadelphia should advance.
Player to Watch: Jakob Glesnes. Glesnes is the rock at the center of the Union’s defense. He’s coming into the playoffs with a small injury and has been vocal with criticism against the front office in recent weeks.
Key Storyline: Are the Union locked in mentally? The Union announced they would not be resigning Alejandro Bedoya and Kai Wagner. Glesnes took to social media to criticize this move. If Bedoya, Wagner, and/or Glesnes are already checked out mentally, this could be a short postseason for the Union.
Prediction: Philadelphia Union advance in two games.
2. Orlando City vs. 7. Nashville SC
Nashville SC allowed just 32 goals to be scored against them this season. No team in the East has a better defense. Their offense wasn’t as impressive as their defense, but with a star like Hany Mukhtar, Nashville is always capable of getting just enough goals to win any match they play in. Because of this, we think Nashville has a pretty good chance of upsetting Orlando City.
With that being said, the Lions are definitely the more in-form of these two teams. Orlando comes into the MLS playoffs on a four-game win streak, and have game-breaking players of their own. Duncan McGuire and Facundo Torres both hit double-digit goals this season. This matchup could honestly go either way, but we’ll give Orlando City a slight edge since they have home-field advantage.
Player to Watch: Duncan McGuire. Maguire finished the season on a hot streak with five goals in his last five matches. He’ll play a key role in cracking open Nashville’s tough defense.
Key Storyline: Will Nashville’s defense hold firm over three games? We think OCSC will advance, but if Nashville can string together three solid defensive performances, they should win this series.
Prediction: Orlando City advance in three games.
3. Columbus Crew vs. 6. Atlanta United
This Round One matchup sees the top two goal-scoring teams in the East go up against each other. Columbus finished the season with 67 goals scored. Atlanta scored 66. Sometimes when two great offenses come together, neither scores and we get a dull match. We don’t expect this to be the case in this series.
MLS defending is pretty lax, even at the best of times. This is also true in the MLS Playoffs. Columbus’ Cucho Hernández and Atlanta’s Thiago Almada and Giorgos Giakoumakis should deliver plenty of goals in this series. Who will score more and advance? Probably Columbus. They are better defensively and overall more solid thanks to their great manager Wilfried Nancy. The advanced numbers back this up. No team had a better Expected Goal Difference than Columbus in the East this season.
Player to Watch: Thiago Almada. The World Cup winner will miss game one of this series while he serves a red card suspension. When he comes back, we expect him to make the difference for Atlanta in this series.
Key Storyline: How will Almada perform under pressure? Thiago Almada is one of the best young players in MLS, but how will he react if his team needs him to carry them on his back for two straight games?
Prediction: Columbus Crew advance in three games.
Western Conference
1. St. Louis CITY SC vs. 8. Sporting Kansas City
Nearly every MLS fan predicted St. Louis to finish near the bottom of the West. Instead, City convincingly finished at top of the conference. Despite their success, we still have doubts about this side in the playoffs. Even with those doubts in mind, St. Louis should be able to handle Sporting Kansas City.
St. Louis beat SKC twice at home this season by a combined margin of 8-1. These results were not shocking either. To be blunt about it, SKC probably should not be in the playoffs. If not for a historically bad Western Conference and expanded playoff field, they probably would have missed out. St. Louis should send SKC packing pretty easily.
Player to Watch: João Klauss. Klauss was one of the most efficient finishers and pressing forwards in MLS this season. He is key to St. Louis’s entire system on both sides of the ball.
Key Storyline: Will St. Louis come crashing down to Earth? St. Louis greatly outperformed their expected goals this season. There’s a chance they regress to the mean in the playoffs and get sent home early.
Prediction: St. Louis CITY SC advance in two games.
4. Houston Dynamo vs. 5. Real Salt Lake
Houston may only be the four seed in the West, but we think they deserve to be treated like genuine Western Conference contenders. Ben Olsen has Héctor Herrera, Adalberto Carrasquilla, and the rest of the Dynamo firing on all cylinders heading into the playoffs. Houston are on a five-game unbeaten streak and have lost just one match in their last 13 outings.
RSL, meanwhile, had a fairly middle-of-the-road season. It wouldn’t be surprising if they took a game from Houston at home, but they don’t have enough quality to compete with the Dynamo over a three-game series.
Player to Watch: Héctor Herrera. The Mexican international came into 2023 with a renewed mentality, which has led to Houston being where they are today.
Key Storyline: Can RSL do it again? RSL have a habit of using the “dark arts” to upset better sides in the first round. Can they pull it off over a three-game series? We don’t think so, but it would be pretty impressive if they could.
Prediction: Houston Dynamo advance in three games.
2. Seattle Sounders vs. 7. FC Dallas
Seattle has a reputation for starting the season slow and turning it on in the playoffs. They took this strategy to the extreme this year. The Sounders quietly put together a very solid second half of the season and were rewarded for it with the number two seed in the West. A dominating 2-0 win over St. Louis on the last day of the season shows what this team is capable of.
FC Dallas come into the MLS playoffs on an impressive nine-match unbeaten streak. However, looking deeper at this streak makes it lose some of its shine. Of those nine unbeaten matches, seven were draws. This tells us that Dallas lack the cutting edge that is necessary to beat an experienced team like Seattle.
Player to Watch: Nico Lodeiro. Has Lodeiro been the Sounders best player this season? No, but he has announced he will leave Seattle after the playoffs. We’re hoping to see a big last dance performance from Lodeiro.
Key Storyline: Will Seattle’s attack start clicking? Seattle are the most defensively disciplined team in MLS. If their offense starts playing up to its potential, we don’t see anyone in the West stopping the Sounders.
Prediction: Seattle Sounders advance in two games.
3. Los Angeles FC vs. 6. Vancouver Whitecaps
Denis Bouanga and Carlos Vela are two of the best players in MLS. Bouanga led the league in goals, while Vela shined in a more reserved role. The rest of their team was more inconsistent at times, which has us worried about LAFC in the MLS playoffs. We’re not worried enough to say Vancouver will beat them though.
The Whitecaps were very good this year. Had they drawn pretty much any other team, Vancouver might have been favorites to advance out of this round. Unfortunately for the Caps, they drew LAFC. If Ryan Gauld and Brian White turn it on, Vancouver may take one game but don’t expect them to do much else.
Player to Watch: Denis Bouanga. Bouanga won the MLS Golden Boot award with 20 goals. The league’s top scorer will always be a player worth watching.
Key Storyline: Which LAFC will show up? LAFC have a tendency to become over-reliant on their stars, which causes them to be one-dimensional and easy to stop. If this LAFC shows up, Vancouver might actually have a chance in this series.
Prediction: LAFC advance in three games.
Who will win the MLS Cup 2023?
Here’s what the conference semifinal matchups would look like according to our MLS playoffs predictions for Round One:
- 1. FC Cincinnati vs. 4. Philadelphia Union
- 2. Orlando City vs. 3. Columbus Crew
- 1. St. Louis CITY SC vs. 4. Houston Dynamo
- 2. Seattle Sounders vs. 3. LAFC
It’s too early to make detailed match predictions about these games, but we can tell you who we think will go through. To sum up our MLS playoffs predictions from this point on, let’s just say that this is where things start to get really interesting. Every round from the Conference Semifinals onward will be decided on one game and one game only. Anything can happen. Here’s what we think will go down.
Eastern Conference Final Prediction: FC Cincinnati 3-1 Columbus Crew
That’s right, we’re predicting a Hell is Real Derby match in our MLS playoffs predictions. We think the Eastern Conference Final will be an all-Ohio affair following an upset victory for the Crew and Cincy win against Philly. As experienced as the Union are, we can’t see FC Cincinnati and all their talent being sent home so early.
As for Columbus, they are better coached and more consistent offensively. We like their chances of beating Orlando on the road. In the Final, Cincy’s talent gives them a major leg-up over Columbus. It wouldn’t surprise us if the Crew put up a good fight, but you can only hold back FC Cincinnati for so long.
Western Conference Final Prediction: Seattle Sounders 2-1 Houston Dynamo
St. Louis’ fairytale story has to come to an end sometime. Our MLS playoffs predictions have it happening against the Dynamo in the Western Conference Semifinal. In the other Semifinal match, things could really go either way. If LAFC’s stars show up, their attacking talent could easily overwhelm the Sounders.
On the other hand, Seattle’s team-oriented style could stifle LAFC. Seattle have home field advantage, so we think the latter is more likely. This brings us to a Seattle vs. Houston Western Conference Final. Seattle are more talented and better coached. We have the Sounders going through to the MLS Cup Final in our MLS playoffs predictions.
2023 MLS Cup Final Prediction: FC Cincinnati 2-0 Seattle Sounders
MLS Supporter’s Shield winners have an unfortunate habit of blowing it in the MLS playoffs. In MLS’s 28-year history, the best MLS regular season team has also won the MLS Cup just eight times. It’s happened just once in the last 11 years. Despite all of this being true, we are confident about FC Cincinnati’s chances.
Cincy have been too good and too consistent on both sides of the ball this season. Don’t get us wrong, Seattle have been good too, but Cincinnati are better. Cincy racked up 13 more points than the Sounders while playing in a much tougher conference. If these teams meet in the MLS Cup Final, FC Cincinnati should win.
