As the footballing world enters another January transfer market, teams like Liverpool and Chelsea have already made major moves, such as signing Cody Gakpo and Benoît Badiashile, to help buoy their top-four chances.
Real Madrid signed a player with even more potential than those two, inking Endrick to an expensive deal that could exceed his 60 million euro release clause if he does indeed fulfill that potential.
However, manager Carlo Ancelotti has already publicly ruled out any further winter moves, putting an end to the speculation that Real Madrid could sign a player to give them an edge in the LaLiga title race with Barcelona or in their pursuit of a successful Champions League title defense.
Los Blancos could have taken a punt on Cristiano Ronaldo, as there was plenty of speculation of a Real reunion after he was training at Valdebebas. However, Florentino Pérez was predictably uninterested in a move.
In fact, you have to go all the way back to 2008/09 to find the last time Real Madrid made a significant shake-up to their squad in the winter market by adding experienced players.
That winter, they spent 47 million euros on Klaas-Jan Huntelaar and Lassana Diarra.
Since then, their biggest signings in the winter have been Reinier, Brahim Díaz, Martin Ødegaard, and Lucas Silva. And now Endrick.
Do you sense a pattern there?
Let’s discuss Real Madrid’s transfer strategy in January and how it fits into Pérez’s squad-building vision that has played out so successfully for Los Blancos in his second stint as president.
Squad continuity
In addition to a lack of big-ticket signings, Real Madrid tend to avoid making huge transfer decisions in the winter. Most of their departures are loans, sending out young players who aren’t quite getting the minutes they need to develop.
Takefusa Kubo’s loan was switched from Villarreal to Getafe in the 2020/21 season, and both Luka Jović and Martin Ødegaard were sent out on loan that winter after Zinédine Zidane made it clear he did not have space for them in his squad.
Real Madrid tend to avoid making drastic decisions on players’ futures in the winter. They avoid knee-jerk reactions and know that all hands on deck are needed in the home stretch of the season.
At the same time, they do not want to stand in the way of a developing player.
So when it comes to youth, they make an exception and are willing to give them the minutes they need, but that’s only if they are a high-profile player who is buried in the squad.
Implicitly, they also loan players who either push to move out or who they don’t see having a long-term future in Madrid.
Squad continuity is part of what makes Real such a great team year after year.
They have a core of players that only changes gradually throughout the years, so they learn how to play with each other and can impart the club’s identity to the next generation.
Leaders like Karim Benzema, Toni Kroos, Dani Carvajal and Luka Modrić are still key starters, and recent departures like Marcelo, Casemiro, and Sergio Ramos did not leave all at once.
No need to panic-buy
When it comes to signings, Real Madrid also avoid making drastic additions in the winter market.
In the same way that a sale of a veteran player earning significant minutes can disrupt the stability of the dressing room, a new addition could vastly change the dynamic of the squad on and off the pitch.
Unless, if Real have a very compelling reason for a mid-season shake-up – which has never been the case over the last decade – they would prefer to stick with the players they have.
That shows a level of belief in the current squad, but it’s also a rational decision business-wise. Real Madrid are avoiding the possibility of making a transfer in the winter, based on a limited amount of evidence, that they will regret in the future.
Winter signings can work out spectacularly. Look no further than Liverpool’s swoop of Porto’s Luis Díaz. But he is an example of an exception.
Players of his caliber are rarely available in the winter, and if they do move in the winter, then it’s because they should have moved in the prior summer if teams were more aware of their quality (Gakpo can fall in that category, too).
Real Madrid know that they can take stock of their squad after the season, avoid any potential distractions in the second half of the season, and go to work on their top targets in the lengthier transfer window.
Building for the future
That said, Los Blancos do not sit there complacently in the January transfer market.
They are as active as any team in the window, even though they aren’t the ones making headlines every week on the rumor mill or splashing cash on well-known players.
Real’s ideal winter transfer window is one that takes a look a the future. Ødegaard and Brahim are past examples of smart winter signings that increased their value thereafter.
Silva and Reinier less so, but the jury is still out on Reiner and Silva wasn’t anywhere near a disaster as a 13 million euro signing.
Endrick is the latest young investment from the winter market, and he is perhaps the most talented prospect Los Blancos have taken a gamble on.
Playing the prospect market is not without risk, but Real know they have to take these risks in order to secure a potential Ballon d’Or-level player in the future.
Free agents
The future isn’t just about the long-term future and planning future stars like Endrick or even players who can be sold at a future profit like Brahim and Ødegaard.
Real Madrid like to make free-agent deals in the winter window. Usually, they wait before signing these players.
Free agents are available to sign pre-contract deals right when the January market opens, meaning teams can secure their signature six months before their contract officially runs out before welcoming them in the subsequent summer window.
In the last two summer windows, Real signed two of the world’s best center backs for free, David Alaba and Antonio Rüdiger.
Both are intelligent, well-rounded, versatile, and modern center backs who have a character that fits the grandeur of the Santiago Bernabéu and the professionalism of the dressing room.
But Real did not sign these two wonderful players to pre-contract deals in the January window. They signed Alaba shortly after Sergio Ramos bid farewell after the season, while they inked Rüdiger to a deal around the same time in the calendar one year later on June 2.
This strategy is smart from Real. They avoid committing a big salary to a free agent until the season is done. Perhaps they have a “handshake” deal with these players, contingent on them maintaining their performance through the second half of the season.
That means they agree to a deal in the winter without signing anything, tell the player to wait for Madrid, and then get the deal done officially when the season ends.
Not only does that help Real focus on the season, but it also enables them to mitigate some of the risk associated with signings a free agent.
Real put in a lot of work behind the scenes on free agents. Often it works out, such as with Alaba and Rüdiger, but occasionally that hard work does not go rewarded when a player does not “wait” for Madrid, as with Kylian Mbappé.
No matter what, it’s a great strategy from Real Madrid. They only go after the world-class players on expiring contracts, so they do not get into a situation like Juventus did where they had a handful of mediocre veterans on inflated salaries that are not impossible to move.
Pérez recognizes the opportunity free agency provides in signing top-quality players like Alaba and Rüdiger for free, but he is also careful to avoid one of the hidden pitfalls of signing players on contract expiries: signing older players to expensive contracts if they cannot perform.
The managing editor of The Trivela Effect, Kevin has 15 years of experience in digital media. He covered Real Madrid from 2019-2022 for The Real Champs as a site manager. You can contact him at the site’s official Twitter handle @TrivelaEffect or via the site’s official email thetrivelaeffect@gmail.com.